CNMI losing 1,000 residents a year as economy shrinks

The CNMI is losing about 1,000 residents a year as economic opportunities disappear, a Commonwealth official told federal partners in San Francisco, warning that the continued population loss is further shrinking an already diminished private sector and tax base.

BJ Nicholas, policy adviser for military affairs under the Office of the Governor, made the assessment during the Sept. 23-25 Interagency Regional Convening in San Francisco hosted by the Office of Local Defense Community Cooperation.

“Right now, we're averaging about 1,000 people a year that we're losing. And it's all because we don't have an opportunity,” Nicholas said.

He tied the population loss to the CNMI’s shrinking private sector and its ability to generate enough revenue to sustain government operations.

“With our diminishing private sector, we don't have a tax base. Without a tax base, how are we going to continue to maintain a government? Financial insolvency at one point was a discussion. Now it's a potential reality,” Nicholas said.

The population decline was only one part of a broader picture CNMI representatives presented to federal officials—an economy struggling to recover, tourism far below what officials say is needed for viability, aging infrastructure, difficulty competing for federal grants, and increasing pressure on government finances.

Matthew Deleon Guerrero, senior policy adviser to CNMI Delegate Kimberlyn King-Hinds, gave an equally stark assessment of the Commonwealth's economic condition.

“There is no economy in the CNMI,” Deleon Guerrero said.

He said the situation separates the Commonwealth from other struggling communities because “the core of their economic activity has evaporated.”

Deleon Guerrero pointed to reduced government resources, shortened government workweeks and school weeks, and what he described as “rapid out-migration” and “incredible rates of people leaving.”

“And we know what the cause is. There is no economy,” he said.

Deleon Guerrero also said rebuilding tourism—the Commonwealth's main economic driver—would require visitor arrivals substantially higher than current levels.

He said the baseline needed to make the industry viable is about 500,000 tourists, compared with about 100,000 this year.

“Next year, it'll be less. So the trajectory is going farther and farther away from viability,” Deleon Guerrero said.

He argued that the Commonwealth's economic problems cannot be separated from federal policies and decisions, saying federal agencies have decision-making authority over matters affecting the CNMI's economic viability.

Deleon Guerrero said continued economic decline would also increase the need for outside assistance to maintain basic services and infrastructure, including water, power, and healthcare.

“And the longer and longer that we progress down this road, the more and more expensive it'll become for the U.S. taxpayers,” he said.

Nicholas, meanwhile, urged federal officials to look beyond the Commonwealth's immediate economic problems and consider the islands' importance during a possible Indo-Pacific contingency.

“If something does happen in the Indo-Pacific, in the western region, plans get activated, what happens to the people of the Commonwealth?” Nicholas said. “What happens to the infrastructure that we need to be able to support our [Department of War]?”

Nicholas also raised the difficulty the CNMI faces when competing against much larger jurisdictions for federal grants.

He cited the Port of Saipan potentially competing against facilities such as the Port of Oakland or the Port of Los Angeles despite vast differences in population and the number of people served.

Nicholas asked federal officials to examine the enabling statutes governing grant programs to determine whether the Commonwealth is included.

He said a January meeting with the U.S. Department of Transportation revealed that some enabling statutes did not include the CNMI among jurisdictions eligible for certain programs.

“The whole reason why we're not able to avail of a particular program, because we weren't written in,” Nicholas said. “Maybe it was an oversight, maybe we were not as vocal back then, but we'd like to be incorporated now.”

Nicholas said the Commonwealth's needs will remain regardless of changes brought by the upcoming elections and argued that costs will continue to rise unless infrastructure requirements are addressed.

He also invited federal partners to continue discussions in the Commonwealth during the Interagency Coordination and Collaboration Forum scheduled for Dec. 3 and 4.

Gov. David M. Apatang did not attend the San Francisco convening, saying his immediate priority remained the pending fiscal year 2027 budget and ensuring the Commonwealth is prepared for potential fiscal and operational challenges.

In a statement, Apatang said representatives from the Office of the Governor and agencies overseeing utilities, healthcare, ports, environmental protection, military affairs, grants, capital improvements, homeland security, and public assistance participated in the convening.

“Our objective is a federal partnership that is stronger and more responsive to realities of our remote location, limited infrastructure, exposure to natural disasters, and responsibilities as a U.S. territory,” Apatang said.

The governor said those investments are necessary for the safety and economic stability of residents while also supporting U.S. security, resilience, and regional response capabilities in the Indo-Pacific.

For Nicholas, however, the Commonwealth's various challenges ultimately come back to creating enough opportunity for residents to stay.

He told federal officials that he left the CNMI 15 years ago to attend school in the Bay Area before returning home intending to help.

“I'm back here now with that opportunity, and I'd really appreciate it if we can be able to sit across the table and make this happen,” Nicholas said. “Not for me, for my family, for my kids, for their family, for their kids, for all of us, because we are all Americans and we all embrace the mission.”