Invest 96W: Likely a Tropical Depression Within 24 Hours

Invest 96W: Likely a Tropical Depression Within 24 Hours

Valid on Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM ChST

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) for Invest 96W early this morning. This means that within the next 24 hours, 96W is likely to become a tropical depression which is a low-pressure, spinning storm system with sustained winds up to 39 MPH. As of 11:20 AM ChST, It was located near 9N 161.3E which was NE of Pohnpei and about 1100 miles east-southeast of Guam.

Residents in Pohnpei, Kosrae: Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and choppy seas will continue at least through this afternoon. Heed the advice of local government and emergency management officials as hazardous seas and weather conditions are expected and occurring. Inter-island boating will continue to be difficult. 96W is forecast to slowly move NW within the next few days, so these conditions may continue longer.

Residents in the Marianas: Models still agree on 96W developing as it moves northwest towards the island chain. The most likely time frame of passage is between Saturday night and Sunday night with an intensity anywhere between a tropical storm to a typhoon. The location of passage varies from Guam to Anatahan, with an average of model tracks between Rota and Saipan. What we are uncertain about is the exact location, intensity, and timing as models continue to show many different possibilities. We advise those in the Marianas to continue preparations and stay up to date with official information from NWS Guam, JTWC, and local government and emergency management agencies.

As a reminder, NWS Guam does not determine the status of Conditions of Readiness (COR) and Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness (TCCOR). Please refer to local government and military officials regarding your island’s current status.

For more information, please visit www.weather.gov/gum. For more information on JTWC, please visit www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html.