Friday, July 3, 2026,
Valid at 7:30 AM ChST
TYPHOON BAVI STRENGTHENING…RAPID INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED IN COMING DAYS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CHUUK, POHNPEI, KOSRAE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT EMERGING FOR MARIANAS…STAY TUNED…TAKE ACTIONS TO PREPARE
Bavi has maintained a steady trend of intensification overnight and has now been upgraded to a typhoon. Rapid intensification is expected to occur today and for the next day or two as it maintains a track toward the Mariana Islands. In the 7:00 am ChST Bulletin #8 from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Bavi was centered near 12.7N 156.1E, or about 760 miles east of Guam, and 715 miles east-southeast of Saipan. It was moving west-northwest at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds are now at 80 mph (Category-1).
In the JTWC’s reasoning, the environment is optimal for rapid intensification, which could start imminently. Furthermore, under the steering of the sub-tropical ridging to the north, Bavi is expected to turn westward for a period of time, before resuming a track toward the west-northwest. As currently forecast, this latest track still forecasts a super typhoon to be passing through the Marianas, still near, or just south of Tinian, mid to late Monday morning. Keep in mind, this is a forecast, not a guarantee…and with 2-3 days ahead, changes can, and will still occur. The overall track could still shift farther south...and closer to Guam, or farther north. Shifts in timing and intensity may also occur in the coming days as Bavi makes its approach to the region. This remains a significant threat for all of the Mariana Islands.
CHUUK, POHNPEI, KOSRAE:
A Special Weather Statement remains in effect for Micronesia, detailing potential impacts associated with Typhoon Bavi as it passes north of the FSM. Folks across the FSM: keep alert to weather forecasts and conditions. Although this system will pass to the north, surging west winds, showers, thunderstorms and the potential for locally heavy rainfall should be anticipated in the coming days..
GUAM & THE CNMI:
Current forecast tracks continue to indicate a grim outlook for the Marianas. All residents across Guam and the CNMI should plan for and anticipate at least tropical storm conditions. However, island(s) closest to the passage, or those potentially with a direct hit, would most likely see much stronger conditions. This is where the uncertainty remains: will the current track of Bavi shift farther to the south, or to the north. These shifts remain likely in the coming days as Bavi nears. Take steps to prepare now for the protection of life and property, and stay tuned. Keep up to date on all local weather forecasts and conditions from NWS Guam (weather.gov/gum) and from CNMI & Guam Homeland Security Offices.
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