Bavi track shifts slightly north, but Rota, Tinian remain in path of dangerous conditions

The latest forecast track for Super Typhoon Bavi has shifted slightly farther north, with the eye now projected to pass between Rota and Tinian, but forecasters warned Sunday evening, July 5, that the change does not lessen the threat to any of the Marianas.

National Weather Service Guam meteorologist Brandon Aydlett said the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's 7pm forecast showed the center of the powerful storm tracking "almost bisecting the waters between Rota and Tinian," while the forecast cone has narrowed as confidence in the storm's path has increased.

"Indeed, they do show a little bit more of a northward shift in the track, almost bisecting the waters between Rota and Tinian," Aydlett said.

He cautioned that while Saipan is now slightly farther outside the forecast cone, residents should not interpret that as being out of danger because the cone only represents the possible location of the eye.

"The impacts extend far away from the center," he said. "That is why nothing has really changed for any of the islands regarding the passage of a super typhoon early Monday morning into Monday midday."

For Tinian and Saipan, Aydlett said the northward shift actually increases the likelihood of stronger winds than earlier forecasts indicated.

"Earlier we were looking at a strong tropical storm... borderline Category 1 conditions for Tinian and Saipan; a little northward shift, it brings stronger winds to Tinian and Saipan," he said.

Aydlett said Bavi had re-intensified to a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and was moving northwest at about 10 mph. The latest forecast also indicates the cyclone could strengthen further to 175 mph before passing the Marianas.

"So this is going to be a very bad system," he said.

Despite the slight adjustment in the forecast track, Aydlett stressed that preparations should not change anywhere in the Marianas.

"Nothing changes. Be in shelter," he said. "Things only get worse from here."

He said weather conditions will steadily deteriorate Sunday night, with the worst conditions expected from sunrise Monday through early Monday afternoon. Although winds and rain will gradually ease afterward, tropical storm-force winds are expected to linger until around midnight Monday into early Tuesday morning.