Global headwinds, flight disruptions weigh on CNMI air service outlook

Mounting global fuel costs and airline cutbacks are threatening to stall the Northern Marianas’ already fragile air service recovery, even as carriers generally have kept their schedules intact through the summer season.

“So while the airlines have confirmed their schedules through October 2026, which is the summer schedule, we are experiencing broader global conditions which are creating a lot of uncertainty in the air service industry,” Commonwealth Ports Authority executive director Esther Ada said during the agency’s board of directors meeting last March 26 at the Port of Saipan.

She said the uncertainty is being driven largely by external factors beyond the CNMI’s control.

“That is really attributed to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has significantly driven up jet fuel prices,” Ada said. “We are seeing an increase in airline operating costs, and we have raising concerns about both fuel availability and long-term affordability.”

“So markets like Saipan, which we rely heavily on international service, those cost pressures are especially impactful and may lead to higher airfares, reduced demand, and fewer flight frequencies.”

Ada said those pressures are already being felt on island, with flight reductions and operational adjustments beginning to take shape.

CPA will see more constrained operations in April, with Jeju Air suspending Saipan service from March 29 to April 30 before resuming in May under early morning arrival slots shared with other carriers.

Overall, Saipan is expected to handle 21 weekly flights in April, down five from March. The schedule includes United Airlines’ daily Guam service, T’way Air’s daily Incheon flights, three weekly Narita runs by United, two weekly Hong Kong Airlines flights, and the entry of Philippine Airlines.

Ada said Philippine Airlines will make its inaugural arrival at 1:45am on March 30, with a welcoming ceremony set for 1am at the Francisco C. Ada-Saipan International Airport.

There was some positive movement, with Hong Kong Airlines planning to increase to four weekly flights beginning in May, pending final approvals.

However, Ada disclosed that another carrier is planning to suspend service from May 6 through October, underscoring what she described as a “difficult operating environment.”

“Air service recovery is no longer driven solely by demand, but it's also increasingly shaped by global cost pressure and operational constraints,” she said.

The Marianas Visitor Authority later that day revealed that the carrier is T’way, which the tourism body said will suspend operations from May 5 to Oct. 24, 2026, covering the South Korean budget carrier’s summer operating schedule.

Meanwhile, Ada said passenger traffic remains below pre-pandemic highs, with Saipan still trailing its fiscal year 2017 peak. Year-to-date figures show declines of 15% in arrivals and 23% in departures compared to last year, reflecting ongoing capacity constraints despite underlying demand.

Inter-island travel also continues to lag, with Rota down 19% year-over-year and Tinian, despite a stronger February, still off by 12%. The Saipan commuter terminal likewise recorded a 14% decline.

Ada said CPA is tightening spending, prioritizing safety and operations, and aggressively pursuing federal funding while working with the Governor’s Office and MVA to develop airline incentives and expand route partnerships.

“Air service remains one of our most pressing challenges,” she said.